Good morning.
While you were sleeping, the United States bombed Venezuela - and captured its president.
Around 2 AM local time on January 3, 2026, explosions rocked Caracas. Fuerte Tiuna - Venezuela’s largest military complex - went up in flames. The port at La Guaira was hit. Social media filled with footage of smoke columns rising over the capital, low-flying aircraft, and what appear to be US attack helicopters.
Then came the announcement: President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, had been captured by US forces and flown out of the country. Attorney General Pam Bondi confirmed both had been indicted in the Southern District of New York on charges including narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy, and weapons offenses. According to sources, Maduro is being flown to New York and will likely be held at MDC-Brooklyn pending trial.
Let’s be clear about what this is: the first direct US military strike on Venezuelan territory in modern history - days after a reported CIA drone strike on a Venezuelan dock - combined with what amounts to the forcible removal of a sitting head of state.
This didn’t come out of nowhere. The Trump administration has been building toward this moment since August 2025, when it started amassing naval forces in the Caribbean - a buildup Hegseth branded Operation Southern Spear in November. By late December, there were about 15,000 US troops in the region, the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier strike group positioned offshore, five guided missile destroyers, two cruisers, and dozens of fighter jets stationed in Puerto Rico. The world’s most advanced military force, surrounding a country the size of Texas.
The official justification is counter-narcotics operations. Secretary of State Marco Rubio retweeted his own post from July this morning, the one where he declared “Maduro is NOT the President of Venezuela and his regime is NOT the legitimate government.” In it, he also wrote: “Maduro is the head of the Cartel de Los Soles, a narco-terror organization which has taken possession of a country.” Senator Mike Lee said Rubio told him the strikes were deployed to protect and defend those executing the arrest warrant.
That framing is doing a lot of legal and rhetorical work.
Here’s what it means: by designating Maduro as the head of a terrorist organization rather than the leader of a sovereign nation, the administration created a pathway to use military force without a declaration of war. You’re not bombing a country or arresting a president - you’re conducting counter-terrorism operations against drug traffickers who happen to control territory. It’s the same basic logic used to justify operations in Pakistan and Yemen.
The problem is that not recognizing a government doesn’t give you legal authority to bomb it or extract its leader. Plenty of governments aren’t recognized by the US. We don’t bomb all of them. Maduro was indicted on federal drug charges in 2020, but an indictment isn’t a conviction. Normally when someone is under indictment, you try to arrest them and bring them to trial. You don’t level their military bases and send Delta Force to extract them from a foreign capital.
Since September, the US has conducted more than 30 strikes on boats in the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific, killing over 110 people who the military says were drug traffickers. The administration hasn’t made any evidence public. Critics in Congress have called for war crimes investigations into at least one of those strikes.
Then came the oil tanker seizures. In December, the US grabbed two tankers carrying Venezuelan oil in international waters, announced a “total and complete blockade” of sanctioned oil tankers, and Trump declared the US would keep the oil - maybe sell it, maybe put it in strategic reserves. Stephen Miller said out loud what the administration has been implying for months: he called Venezuela’s takeover of its oil industry “the largest recorded theft of American wealth and property.”
Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves on the planet. 303 billion barrels. That’s a fifth of global reserves. More than Saudi Arabia. Under US sanctions and mismanagement, they’re producing a fraction of what they could, and about 80% of what they do export goes to China.
Here’s what the neighbors are saying.
Colombian President Gustavo Petro tweeted as the bombs fell: “Alert to the whole world, they have attacked Venezuela. They are bombing with missiles. The OAS and the UN must meet immediately.” Colombia has been the most vocal critic of US escalation - and they’ve paid for it. The Trump administration slashed US aid and put Petro on a sanctions list after he called the boat strikes murder.
Brazil’s Lula da Silva called it a very serious affront to Venezuela’s sovereignty. Mexico’s Sheinbaum reiterated opposition to foreign intervention. Chile’s Boric condemned the strikes and called for a peaceful way out.
Argentina and El Salvador expressed support for US actions. The region is fractured exactly along the ideological lines you’d expect.
China accused the US of violating international law at a UN Security Council meeting last week, calling the tanker seizures unilateral bullying. Beijing has significant oil interests in Venezuela but has offered nothing beyond rhetoric. Russia’s Foreign Ministry said it would issue a statement shortly. Their spokesperson called it US aggression.
About those Russian diplomats.
Around December 19, Russia reportedly began evacuating the families of its diplomatic staff from Venezuela. The AP cited a European intelligence source saying Russian officials were assessing the situation in very grim tones. Moscow officially denied the evacuation but didn’t address whether families specifically had been removed. Witnesses saw over 10 vehicles with diplomatic plates gathered outside the Russian Embassy in Caracas.
Did they know this was coming? The circumstantial evidence suggests they anticipated serious escalation. Whether they had specific intelligence about strike timing or were just reading the obvious signs - massive military buildup, public threats, escalating seizures - is unclear.
Now, about the timing.
The DOJ missed its December 19 deadline to release the full Epstein files. A Justice Department document now says 5.2 million pages still need review. The releases so far - from the DOJ and from House Oversight Democrats - have included photos of Trump and Clinton, an Epstein email saying Trump “spent hours at my house” with a victim, and a letter the DOJ posted and then called a fake. Marjorie Taylor Greene leaves Congress on Monday - she announced her resignation after Trump turned on her, partly over her push to release the files.
Is this all a distraction? NBC News reports Trump approved the operation before Christmas, and Trump says bad weather pushed it back four days. The infrastructure for this attack has been in place for months. But the timing - two weeks after the Epstein deadline, while Congress is in recess - is certainly convenient for anyone who wanted to change the subject.
What happens next is genuinely unclear.
Venezuela’s Vice President Delcy Rodriguez has demanded proof of life for Maduro and Flores - their whereabouts were unknown to the Venezuelan government for hours after the strikes. The Venezuelan government has activated national defense plans and reportedly plans to arm civilians. Fuerte Tiuna, which was hit, is also home to the Defense Ministry. A Chinese delegation met with Maduro hours before the strikes - it’s unknown if they evacuated before the bombs fell.
The FAA has prohibited US commercial aircraft from Venezuelan airspace. Congress is on recess until after January 5. Senator Andy Kim said the administration blatantly lied to Congress, noting that Secretaries Rubio and Hegseth told senators weeks ago this wasn’t about regime change.
The US just started a war with a South American country and removed its president by force. The administration calls it executing an arrest warrant on a narco-terrorist. Venezuela calls it military aggression. Colombia’s president calls it bombing with missiles. China calls it bullying. Russia is preparing a statement.
What everyone should call it is the beginning of something with no clear end.
Correction, September 28th, 2026: This essay first said the DOJ was claiming over 5 million documents needed review - a DOJ document put it at 5.2 million pages. It also said the Epstein releases included emails suggesting Trump spent time at Epstein’s house with young women and a forged letter the DOJ accidentally posted and had to retract - it was one email, released by House Oversight Democrats, about one victim, and the DOJ called the letter a fake rather than retracting it; that the strikes came the weekend after the Epstein deadline - they came two weeks after it; and that Operation Southern Spear launched in August - the buildup started then, and the operation got its name in November. It also quoted Illinois Governor JB Pritzker warning that Trump might start a war with Venezuela as a distraction, said CBS News reported the strikes were planned for Christmas Day and bumped by airstrikes in Nigeria, said Brazil’s Lula had been defending Latin America as a zone of peace, and said the defense minister’s home may have been hit - none of that could be backed up, so those lines are cut back to what the record shows.
Update, September 28th, 2026: A few lines now say who says so - Rubio’s own words on Maduro and Stephen Miller’s own words on Venezuela’s oil - and add that a CIA drone strike reportedly hit a Venezuelan dock days earlier, that the administration hasn’t made its boat-strike evidence public, that the seized tankers were carrying Venezuelan oil and the blockade was of sanctioned tankers, that Chile’s Boric condemned the strikes, and that Marjorie Taylor Greene hadn’t left Congress yet. Apostrophes and quote marks lost in an old publishing glitch are back, each quote checked against its source - and Gustavo Petro’s post, translated from Spanish, now includes his call for the OAS to meet too.