I posted a tweet from Laura Loomer last week that noted there were now 65 MILLION illegal immigrants in the US currently. That’s both insane and idiotic. It’s 3 times the number even Donald Trump claims – which made me wonder – how crazy is HIS claim?
He and his administration keeps spouting that unauthorized immigrants in the US exploded under Biden – often citing a ridiculous “12 million influx.” This narrative has become their go-to justification for their harsh immigration policies. But the actual data? It tells a completely different story.
Pew Research shows the unauthorized immigrant population peaked at 12.2 million back in 2007 before dropping during the recession. By 2017, this number had stabilized around 10.5 million – and stayed there through 2021. Recent estimates show a slight bump to 11.0 million in 2022. The Migration Policy Institute found similar numbers – 11.0 million in 2019, inching up to 11.2 million by 2021.
The data shows that between 2019 and 2022, the net increase was only about 0.5 to 1 million – normal fluctuation, not some unprecedented invasion.
Trump’s whole narrative of over 20 million illegal immigrants hinges on border encounter numbers – which is a garbage metric to use. PBS fact-checked this in February and found that these encounters include both illegal crossings and people legally entering at ports through asylum appointments. Biden allowed people to schedule appointments at official ports to seek asylum – which counted as an “encounter” but wasn’t illegal immigration. Trump killed this program his first day in office.
Here’s what people miss – most border encounters don’t result in someone permanently staying here illegally. Most people are stopped, and many are expelled under Title 42 – a policy used by both administrations. Of those who do enter, millions have temporary protections like DACA or TPS. In 2022, over 3 million immigrants had these protections – they aren’t even counted as “Illegal.” So equating encounter numbers with net population growth is just bad analysis.
The demographic data backs this up too. MPI found that in 2019, unauthorized immigrants paid $18.9 billion in federal taxes and $9.8 billion in state and local taxes – hardly evidence of a sudden massive influx. If 12 million new people had flooded in, we’d see obvious spikes in housing demand, labor statistics, and social services usage. We don’t.
The truth is that the unauthorized immigrant population has simply gotten older. Pew data shows that in 2022, 66% of unauthorized immigrants had lived in the US for more than 10 years – up from 41% in 2007. This isn’t a new influx – it’s the same people who’ve been here for decades.
When the White House claimed a 95% drop in illegal immigration since Trump took office, PBS fact-checkers found the real number was closer to 60% – and the data was cherry-picked from a convenient time period. Immigration numbers always fluctuate based on weather, economics, and political stability in other countries – not just US policy.
Even if we project current trends forward thru 2025, the total unauthorized population would be around 11.5 to 12 million – nowhere near the 23 million implied by Trump’s rhetoric.
The evidence is clear – there was no massive surge. Obviously, politicians should use real data instead of fear-mongering nonsense to inform policy debates – but I won’t hold my breath...