It’s a problem-solving principle that recommends searching for explanations constructed with the smallest possible set of elements – basically, the simplest explanation is usually the correct one. Named after 14th-century philosopher William of Ockham, the principle gives precedence to simplicity: of two competing theories, the simpler explanation of an entity is usually the correct one.
The principle has guided scientific thinking for centuries. Isaac Newton incorporated the rule when he said: “We are to admit no more causes of natural things than such as are both true and sufficient to explain their appearances”.
In English, it basically means don’t make up complicated explanations when simple ones work perfectly fine. It’s the difference between assuming your headache is caused by dehydration versus thinking you have a brain tumor.
Now let’s apply this razor to the persistent delusion that Trump is playing “4D chess.”
It’s an expression trotted out by MAGA when they;re trying to figure out what the hell he is doing or saying. Since a lot of it makes no sense on face value, they’ve created the narrative that he’s using some kind of advanced political strategy to manipulate and dominate the news media. It’s been the go-to excuse for every erratic decision, embarrassing tweet and policy disaster.
However, the truth is that when Trump makes what appears to be an impulsive, poorly thought-out decision – which happens roughly every 48 hours – his supporters have two explanations to choose from:
Complex explanation:
Trump is a strategic genius executing an intricate multi-dimensional plan that mere mortals cannot comprehend. He’s deliberately appearing incompetent to lull his enemies into complacency while secretly orchestrating a master strategy that will pay off in ways we can’t even imagine.
Simple explanation:
He’s not that bright and made an impulsive decision.
Chess legend Garry Kasparov told Politico in 2017, “Trump operates in really a short-term environment. … The way he communicates with the world definitely shows a lack of any strategic calculations”.
When an actual chess grandmaster – someone who understands strategic thinking better than almost anyone on Earth – looks at Trump’s behavior and sees no evidence of strategic calculation, maybe that should mean something.
The 4D chess theory requires an absurd number of assumptions. You have to assume Trump is secretly brilliant despite decades of evidence to the contrary. You have to assume he’s capable of long-term planning despite a documented pattern of impulsive decision-making. You have to assume his public incompetence is all an act – a performance so convincing that it includes bankrupting multiple businesses, losing lawsuits, and making verifiably false statements about easily checkable facts.
Meanwhile, the simple explanation requires exactly one assumption: Trump is exactly as he appears to be.
Analysis of Trump’s tariff policies shows “no basis in fact, no basis in reality had nothing to do with trade policy whatsoever. It was just a fabricated number”. When geopolitical experts can’t find any coherent strategy behind major policy decisions, when there are “no clear goals or an end in sight”, the simplest explanation isn’t that we’re witnessing genius-level maneuvering – it’s that there is no strategy.
The razor becomes even sharper when you consider that intelligent people tend to recognize intelligence in others. It’s the Dunning-Kruger effect in reverse – competent people can usually spot competence. The fact that most genuinely intelligent observers see no evidence of strategic brilliance suggests there isn’t any to see.
One of the greatest ironies of all time is that dumb people are so sure of their competence, while smart people always fear their own incompetence.
One critic put it bluntly: “A convicted criminal who was held liable for sexual assault and fraud and has been bankrupted six times is somehow the master of the ‘Art of the Deal’ despite clearly not understanding how trade deficits work”. The 4D chess narrative requires us to believe that someone who demonstrably struggles with basic concepts is secretly operating on a level of sophistication that escapes experts in their fields.
Here’s what’s really happening: People who want to believe Trump is competent have constructed an unfalsifiable theory. Every apparent mistake becomes evidence of hidden genius. Every contradiction becomes proof of strategic misdirection. It’s the perfect conspiracy theory because it can explain any evidence – which means it explains nothing.
The smartest people see through this immediately because they understand that actual strategic thinking leaves recognizable patterns. Real chess masters don’t randomly move pieces and claim it’s part of a secret plan. As former British chess grandmaster Jonathan Rowson notes, “Chess is an easy game that merely requires practice and experience to master, rather than innate logic or just intelligence” – yet even this supposedly “easy” game shows clear evidence of planning and foresight when played well.
The not-so-bright, however, mistake complexity for intelligence. They see chaos and assume it must be sophisticated because they can’t understand it. They confuse unpredictability with strategy, randomness with cunning.
Occam’s razor cuts away all the elaborate justifications and leaves us with the truth: Trump isn’t playing 4D chess. He’s not even playing regular chess. He’s the guy who tips over the board when he’s losing and claims he meant to do it all along.
The simple explanation is that he’s exactly what he appears to be – someone making it up as he goes along, driven by ego and impulse rather than any coherent strategy. And the simplest explanation, as William of Ockham knew 700 years ago, is usually the right one.